We made it. 268 games and thousands of COVID tests later and the day is finally here, Superbowl 55. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Brady led Buccaneers in what should be a classic. Here at Couch Rats we pride ourselves on being able to inform you with everything you need in order to have the full Super Bowl experience. Pslam and Wronsko break it down below:
Pslams Analysis and Picks:
I’ve learned this the hard way: You don’t make money betting against Patrick Mahomes. The same can be said about Brady, but I believe this matchup swings in favour of the Chiefs.
Mahomes is the best quarterback I have ever seen, his ability to diagnose defences and change schemes on the fly is alarming. In conjunction with Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid, Mahomes has developed the brain to go along with his ungodly physical talents.
Two weeks ago against Buffalo, Mahomes only threw for one pass over 20 yards downfield, it was death by a million papercuts. Last time they played Tampa, it was an all-out aerial attack with Tyreek Hill catching 13 passes for 269 and 3 TDS. Earlier this season against Buffalo, they rushed for 245 yards in a victory. They can win any which way.
Many will be on the Buc’s today, siding with Tom and using the six-ring argument. But as Dale Dobak once so eloquently put it: “I’ve had the old bull, but now I want the young calf.” This is Patrick Mahomes’ time to shine.
Not to say Brady doesn’t still have Jam. He’s got it, and with the arsenal of weapons Tampa has I think this will be a shootout. AB, Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Lenny, Rojo – its formidable. But Brady has stumbled at times this year. His most recent 3 INT’s against Green Bay was concerning to say the least.
As cliche as it is, I believe this game will come down to turnovers as both teams can score at will. Mahomes simply doesn’t turn it over that often. Including the playoffs, Mahomes has 42 TDS and 6 INTS while Brady has 47 TDs and 15 INTS.
The one concern in my mind is the Tampa Bay front seven. They are rabid, and with the return of Vita Vea could pose a serious problem for the Chiefs injured o-line. Devin White is a heat seeking missile and JPP is having a career renaissance. That being said, I don’t want to bore you with more analysis as the people on T.V can probably do a far better job then me.
The Bets:
Spread: KC -3.0 (-110)
ML: KC (-140)
O/U: Over 56.0 (-110)
Props:
Chiefs TT o29.5 (-110)
Devin White u10.5 tackles & assists (-140)
Ronald Jones o8.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Ronald Jones o35.5 rush yards. (-110)
Byron Pringle anytime TD scorer (+450)
Kelce o97.5 RecY (-110)
Kelce Super Bowl MVP (+1000)
Mecole Hardman 1st TD scorer (+2000)
Mahomes Super Bowl MVP (-120)
LOCK OF THE CENTURY – Byron Pringle o0.5 receptions (-160)
Oh yeah, and Orange Gatorade (+110)
Wronsko's Analysis and Picks:
This is what the fans wanted. Millions of NFL enthusiasts were salivating at the prospect of a Brady vs Mahomes SB. Master vs Student, King vs Prince, Jedi vs Padawan, this matchup is BOX OFFICE.
Both of these QBs have weapons galore and know how to turn them loose. Although these defences have been buzzing lately, I expect the OCs to run wild in Tampa. This is going to be fun.
Bucs run blocking has been sneaky and those two horses (Lenny, Ronny) have been galloping as of late. The Chiefs love Nickel packages, and I expect the Bucs to punish them for it.
On the other end of the field, the Chiefs OL is in tough against this front 7. Without their two starting tackles, I see KC struggling to adequately protect their MVP.
The Bets:
Spread: Tampa +3.0 (-110)
ML: Tampa (+145)
O/U: Over 56.0 (-110)
Only thing scaring me for the over is SPAGS. He’s dialled up some good stuff in his last two matchups with Brady, and I think we all remember what happened on February 3rd, 2008.
Props:
First TD: Mike Evans (+1000)
Tom Brady O/U 0.5 Rush yards: Over (+125)
Tyreek Hill O/U 94.5 Rec Yds: Under (-120)
Scott Miller O/U 11.5 longest Reception: Over (-115)
SBMVP: Travis Kelce (+1000)
Bonus prayer: SBMVP: Dan Sorensen (+12500)
